-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- 2013 will be a year of harsh change for the tech industry . We 've just experienced five years of rapid , messy and disruptive innovation , and smartphones and tablets are n't the future any longer -- they 're the present .

Powerful mobile devices connected to broadband-speed cell networks are now an everyday reality , and it 's going to take more than a bigger screen or faster processor to make an impact this year . Think of 2013 as the year of refinement and reckoning .

Here are five big developments to keep an eye on :

1 . The future of Microsoft

Microsoft has been very candid about `` missing a generation '' of mobile innovation after Apple introduced the iPhone , and 2012 was all about the results of a furious catch-up effort : the company launched the completely rethought Windows 8 for PCs , Windows RT for tablets and Windows Phone 8 for smartphones . CEO Steve Ballmer also repositioned Microsoft as a `` devices and services '' company , and he introduced the Surface and Surface Pro , two tablets designed by Microsoft itself to compete with traditional PC companies such as Dell and Sony .

That 's a lot of bold bets , and they all have to pay off in 2013 . The PC era is over , and Microsoft has to show consumers it has something to offer in a world dominated by tablets and smartphones . Windows 8 and Surface sales appear to have been slow so far , so we 'll see how the company does . There is one all-but-guaranteed bright spot , though : a new Xbox is due to be announced this year .

Top tech wishes for 2013

2 . Can Apple get its software mojo back ?

Apple found success in 2012 by introducing an iPhone with a bigger screen and an iPad with a smaller screen , but it 'll have to focus on software in 2013 to stay ahead of the competition .

Apple CEO Tim Cook has now launched two iPhones since taking over for Steve Jobs , and both of them have come with buggy , incomplete flagship software features -- the iPhone 4S launched with the charming-but-not-so-useful Siri voice assistant , and the iPhone 5 launched with a homegrown Maps app so buggy that Cook was forced to apologize to customers .

In the meantime , archrival Google has begun shipping some of the best iPhone apps around -- I 've replaced most of Apple 's apps on my iPhone homescreen with Google-built replacements such as Gmail , Google Maps , Chrome and YouTube . Most of my peers in the industry have done the same . That 's not a good sign .

Cook just fired Scott Forstall , the controversial head of iOS development who presided over Siri and Maps . Designer Jony Ive is now in charge of both hardware and software , so we 'll see if the company can regain its reputation for state-of-the-art software design with the next iPhone and iPad .

3 . Will Amazon go head to head with Apple and Google ?

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos was very blunt when he introduced the new Kindle Fire HD in September -- he called it the `` best tablet on the market . '' That was an obvious shot at Apple and the iPad , but Amazon 's real competitor may well be Google , especially as the market for books , music and movies moves entirely online .

There 's no way Amazon wants people searching Google to find content and products from multiple sources . Amazon wants to build an ecosystem so robust you never want to leave . Think of what Apple did for music with the iPod and iTunes and then imagine Amazon doing that for everything .

But the Kindle Fire products are n't good enough to compete with the iPad yet , and Amazon does n't have all the services it needs to compete with Google either . It needs to offer at least e-mail and search , and a social experience would n't hurt either . That 's not a small undertaking , but Amazon is one of the few companies with the scale , infrastructure and resources to make it happen . The rumors are getting louder . We 'll see whether Amazon makes a big move in 2013 .

4 . Can Facebook grow up ?

2013 will be Facebook 's first year as a public company , and it has to prove that it can be a stable , reliable investment . That 's no easy task : Facebook figured out how to make money selling ads on its website just as most of its users switched to smartphone and tablet apps .

Selling ads on mobile is n't nearly as easy , and Facebook has to figure out how to display relevant ads to smartphone users without crossing the privacy line -- a line about which users are increasingly worried . But CEO Mark Zuckerberg has to answer to his investors now , and the pressure to cross that line will increase every day that Facebook is n't making money in mobile .

5 . Can Google take Android back from Samsung and the wireless carriers ?

Here 's the brutal truth of the smartphone market : the only companies that make any money are Apple and Samsung . Every other company , from HTC to Sony to Google 's own Motorola , is struggling . And that 's a huge problem for Google .

Apple obviously writes its own software for the iPhone , but Samsung 's phones all run a customized version of Google 's open-source Android , and Samsung is so dominant that it could very well split off and start building its own version of Android , just as Amazon did with the Kindle Fire . That would be a huge blow to Google . If the rest of the market ca n't make money using Android soon , it 'll provide a big opening for Microsoft .

Google also has to find a way to limit the influence of wireless carriers on Android . Companies such as AT&T and Verizon are all too happy to load up Android devices with unnecessary crapware and bloatware that ruin the user experience while delaying important software updates .

The animosity between Google and the carriers has gotten so deep that Google 's new Nexus 4 flagship device does n't have an LTE radio ; the carriers simply would n't cooperate .

That 's in stark contrast to the iPhone experience , which is pristine and controlled by Apple from the start . It 's a control that irritates power users but offers a sense of support and security to the rest of Apple 's millions of customers . There 's a happy balance between the two extremes , and Google needs to find it before Android begins to slip away entirely .

These are just five of the many interesting things to look out for in 2013 , from the future of TV to the rise of wearable computing . After several years of rapid change , we 've all got computers in our pockets . The next few years will be about what we do with them to make our lives better .

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Nilay Patel .

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Nilay Patel : 2013 is the year of refinement and reckoning in the tech industry

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Patel : There are five big developments to keep an eye on

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He asks whether Apple will get its mojo back and what will Microsoft do ?

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Patel : Can Facebook grow up , and will Amazon be able to compete with Google ?